Will real estate investment in Marbella be profitable in 2026?

Recently, investors and those interested in purchasing real estate have been asking an important question: Will buying property in Marbella or Spain be profitable in 2026? Will it suit me? Does the expected return really fit my plans and goals?

The question is logical, because the real estate market in Spain has changed rapidly over the past two years. Prices have risen in many areas and are now higher than they were during the same periods in previous years. At the same time, some people are entering the market with the aim of renting (short or long term), while others are simply looking to preserve the value of their money in a strong asset that can grow over time. This is precisely where the difference between a well-considered decision and a hasty decision becomes apparent.

To be clear: profitability is not a given for any investment, and not every property automatically means profit. The idea is simply this:

Investment profitability = (price growth + rental income) − (costs + risks)

In other words, you don't just ask, "Will the price of the property increase?" You also ask, "How much rent can it generate?" and "What will you pay in return in terms of purchase taxes and operating expenses?" and "How strong is the location and demand for it?"

In this article, we will provide you with a practical method to help you realistically evaluate investing in Marbella in 2026.

Now we come to the most important question: Is real estate investment in Marbella in 2026 profitable?

Yes, but not automatically, because profitability, as mentioned in the previous paragraph, varies depending on the area, type of property, purchase price, and your goal (rental, value growth, or housing).

In practical terms, you need to combine price growth + rental income and then deduct costs and risks from them.

In Spain, official indicators show that prices have risen sharply in recent times (for example, annual growth of 12.8% in the third quarter of 2025, according to Spain's National Statistics Institute).

At the same time, the Bank of Spain noted that the strength of demand relative to supply was a key factor driving prices (especially in real terms).

In summary, if you choose a property that is in demand and at a reasonable price, with a clear plan for generating returns, your chances of profit will be higher. Random purchases, on the other hand, may turn into additional costs rather than successful investments.

 

 The real estate market before 2026: What was the market like in 2024–2025?

Before judging the profitability of 2026, we must understand where the market has been over the past two years.

 

Spain in general (general image):

According to the official housing price index (HPI) published by the INE, housing prices in Spain were rising strongly, and in the third quarter of 2025, annual growth reached 12.8% with a quarterly increase of 2.9%. This means that the market is entering 2026 with clear momentum at the national level.

Supply and demand (why did prices rise?):

The Bank of Spain report clearly indicates that strong demand coupled with inelastic supply pushed prices higher during the first half of 2025. The report also shows that demand growth is not keeping pace with new housing production, so much of the movement has shifted to the secondary market (resales).

Marbella specifically (important figures):

According to the Panorama Marbella report, based on documented transaction data, the average actual sale price per square meter in Marbella during the 12 months prior to September 2025 was approximately €4,228/m², while the average for the period from July to September 2025 was approximately €4,509/m². The report also states that average prices within the municipality of Marbella in 2024 rose by around 12.59%, giving a realistic picture of the market trend before 2026.

The Prime Sector in Marbella:

In the same report, indicators suggest that the luxury market remains a key driver. For example, the average transaction value in the Golden Mile area reached €1,085,457 in the year to September 2025. With supply continuing to be tight and new product scarce in luxury areas, pressure remains on prices within this sector.

What factors could make 2026 more profitable for real estate investment in Marbella?

There are a number of factors that could make investing in Marbella in 2026 more profitable, depending on the type of property, its location, and how it will be used.

 

First: Strong international demand for Costa del Sol (and Marbella in particular).

Foreign interest in buying homes in Spain remains high after the pandemic, and CaixaBank Research analyses indicate that foreign purchases represent a significant weight in the market. Other reports also show that the province of Malaga accounts for a large share of transactions in Andalusia, with a notable percentage of foreign purchases.

Second: Limited supply and scarcity of the new product (natural pressure on prices).

The Panorama Marbella report points to a continuing shortage of new supply locally and nationally, putting pressure on the market as demand continues. In the same vein, the Bank of Spain explains that strong demand coupled with inelastic supply has been one of the main reasons for pushing prices higher.

Third: Marbella is a luxury market linked to a lifestyle.

Marbella is not just about buying property, but rather a market linked to lifestyle and the luxury sector, which explains why prices have reached record levels driven by demand for luxury real estate. Much of the demand is also linked to tourism in Marbella, which supports seasonal rentals throughout the year.

Fourth: The difference between a normal choice and a smart choice.

In this type of market, profitability is often linked to a property that has real demand, such as location, views, proximity to amenities, and build quality, rather than the idea of buying in general, especially when supply is limited and demand is strong.

Three possible scenarios for 2026: How to read the market intelligently?

The Spanish real estate market will enter 2026 after a strong growth spurt, according to official indicators. Therefore, it is best not to assume a single trend, but rather to consider three logical scenarios:

 

1) Calm scenario (calming and balance without significant decline):

Activity remains steady, but at a slower pace, with the number of transactions gradually declining and price growth slowing after a period of strong growth. This scenario typically occurs when demand continues but with less enthusiasm, or when financing conditions remain costly. However, limited supply remains a factor that limits the chances of a sharp decline.

2) Base scenario (most likely):

Demand remains stronger than supply, as is currently the case, and the market continues to grow moderately, especially in areas with actual demand. Bank of Spain analyses indicate that strong demand coupled with inelastic supply has been driving prices, and with foreign purchases continuing to be an important part of the market, the overall trend may remain positive but without major jumps.

3) Stronger scenario (stronger growth):

If financing conditions improve (i.e., interest rates fall) and external demand remains strong, we may see a stronger push in prices and transactions, especially in tourist areas that are popular with foreign buyers, such as Malaga (Marbella and the Golden Triangle/Costa del Sol).

 

To see which scenario unfolds in 2026, keep an eye on the following indicators:

• Movement of the housing price index in Spain (overall momentum).
• Pace of transactions: Still strong or starting to slow down?
• Demand from foreigners and their share of sales, especially in tourist areas.
• Supply indicators: Is the completion of new units keeping pace with demand?

 

 Where are the opportunities in Marbella (depending on your goal)?

The idea here is not based on the logic of "one size fits all." The opportunity is determined by your specific primary goal for the property:

1) Your rental goal (short/long term):

Look for apartments in areas close to the sea, amenities, and activity (such as Marbella center or near the marina, or a penthouse apartment with a clear view and close to amenities and areas that are active throughout the year). The idea is that vacation properties are often in higher demand because people think about rental returns, but it is preferable to choose a property that suits your goals as a long-term rental if short-term rental conditions change. Reports indicate increased restrictions in some city centers and advise caution. At the same time, detached houses or townhouses are considered a strong option for rental returns in this context.

 

2) Your goal is capital growth:

Here, the idea lies in luxury properties or rare properties such as ( property or house by the sea). Luxury locations with limited supply, such as the Golden Mile and its surroundings, and areas close to Puerto Banús and Nueva Andalucía. Market reports show clear price differences between these areas and others, so if your goal is capital growth, this type of property is the most suitable for you.

 

3) Your goal is personal use + secondary return:

Choose family-friendly, comfortable areas with services, schools, and easy access (e.g., San Pedro Alcántara and Guadalmina), or areas in eastern Marbella such as Río Real/Los Monteros/Elviria if you prefer more tranquility but still want to be close to work and the sea. This type of property will often give you peace of mind and the possibility of a quieter long-term rental.

 

Based on this, it can be said that the opportunity in Marbella is actual demand + a property type suitable for this demand + flexibility in the rental plan + a reasonable purchase price.

Purchase costs and taxes (costs that must be calculated)

When considering purchasing property in Marbella, there are three key tax items that must be taken into account from the outset, as the difference between the property price and the actual purchase cost often stems from these:

• Property status Resale/used property (i.e., not directly from the developer): ITP tax is usually applied, and in Andalusia, the general rate is 7%.

Official documents tax (AJD): AJD (general rate 1.2%), payable according to the type of transaction/documentation (e.g., certain notarization and mortgage transactions, etc.).

 

• If the property is new: VAT/IVA isoften applied instead of ITP,and in Spain the general rate for the sale of homes is 10% (in special cases it may be reduced).

VAT: Value Added Tax on Goods and Services (its name in English).

IVA: Same as VAT, but in Spanish: Impuesto sobre el Valor Añadido.

ITP: Tax on the transfer of ownership when purchasing a property resale (used) property in Spain: Impuesto sobre Transmisiones Patrimoniales.

Important note: There are (discounted types) for each item depending on the situation (e.g., primary residence, age, specific conditions). We can help you find out these details by contacting us.

 

Risks to consider when buying property in Marbella:

 

First: High purchase price risk versus return:

When the market is booming, you may buy at a high price, and in this case, even if growth continues, the actual return (especially from rent) will be weaker or take longer to offset the costs.

 

Second: The risk of choosing a location or property for which there is no actual demand:

In Marbella, there is a difference between "property on the market" and "property that can be sold quickly and at a good price." If you buy a property in a location where demand is low or its specifications do not serve the market, you may encounter difficulties during the rental process or when selling, even if the overall market is good.

 

Third: Risk of regulatory and tax changes:

Laws and fees are subject to change (especially regarding tourist or short-term rentals, or documentation and tax procedures), so it is best to build a safety margin into your plan from the outset so that you have a backup plan ready (such as switching to a long-term rental if necessary).

 

Marbella is the most attractive market in Costa del Sol for investors and those interested in buying real estate, but profitability is not a matter of luck or an automatic result that cannot be calculated. It is actually achieved through correct and smart choices (a location with actual demand, a type of property that suits your goal, and a reasonable purchase price with costs calculated from the outset). As you have read in our article, where there are more than one possible scenario for 2026, the most important thing is to have a clear and flexible plan and to realistically assess the return before making a decision.

If you like, contact us at MaxistHomes and we will send you a shortlist of properties that suit your goals (rental/capital growth/residential), and we can help you with a rough estimate of the purchase cost and basic fees, so that you can choose with confidence in the figures and steps involved. Direct WhatsApp link to the Maxisthomes main office

Feel free to reach out to us to answer all your questions and explore our unique collection of available properties. Whether you are planning to buy your dream home or rent a high-end property, we will help you find the best options available in the unique Costa del Sol market.